Crime is Increasing at an Accelerated Pace in Chicago Week 12 Public Safety Report

March 24, 2026 | John Kugler | Chicago Crime

Crime Report March 24 2026

At the start of the year, crime was significantly down — but that lead has disappeared fast.

This is not “back to normal” — it is a reversal in direction.

Just weeks ago, year-to-date numbers were still strongly negative.

Now they’ve flipped, and the most recent 7-day and 28-day data prove crime is accelerating upward.

Week 12 Update:

Shooting incidents: +4% last 7 days | +11% last 28 days | now –1% year-to-date
Murders: +17% last 28 days
Motor Vehicle Theft: +7% YTD
Aggravated Battery: 0% YTD (flat)

The early-year drops have not just faded — multiple categories are now flat or moving upward.

Shooting incidents are rising in real time.

Murders are up 17% over the last 28 days, confirming the increase in the most serious violence.

Motor vehicle theft has already flipped positive for the year, and aggravated battery is no longer down — meaning its earlier decline has been erased.

Why the marked data matters

The orange highlights show the real-time shift.

Negative percentages turning to zero or positive are not neutral — they confirm the earlier decline has been erased and that incidents are now increasing.

When a category reaches zero, the drop has stopped.

When it turns positive, crime is higher than last year.

This kind of shift requires sustained week-after-week increases — exactly what the last 28 days are showing in shootings (+11%) and murders (+17%).

Since Week 1 the pattern is clear: murders went from –71% to –5% YTD, shootings from –33% to –1% YTD, aggravated battery reached 0%, and motor vehicle theft flipped to +7%.

The early drop didn’t hold. It reversed.

Crime isn’t just rising — it’s accelerating.

Chicago Crime Data Observations: Week 1 vs. Week 12

In just 12 weeks, murders shifted by +66% and total crime by +19% toward last year’s levels, erasing the early-year drop.

What looked like a sharp decline in January has been reversed by steady increases week after week.

The Murder Swing

In Week 1, murders were down 71%. By Week 12, that gap has narrowed to just –5%. That kind of shift doesn’t happen by chance — it reflects sustained increases in incidents over the weeks in between compared to 2025.

The “Zero” Threshold

Shooting incidents are now at –1% year-to-date. At this trajectory, a move into positive territory is likely — meaning 2026 would surpass 2025 levels. The early drop has effectively been erased.

Motor Vehicle Theft

This is the clearest example of reversal. It began the year at –3% and has steadily climbed to +7% year-to-date. Theft is no longer declining — it is now running higher than last year.

What started as a decline has turned into a climb — and the direction is no longer ambiguous.