Key Points
Research suggests CPD’s policy changes may reduce police misconduct but could limit crime control, with mixed impacts on violence.
It seems likely that these policies, like foot pursuit limits, aim to build trust but may sustain high crime rates by reducing arrests.
The evidence leans toward socioeconomic factors, not just policies, driving Chicago’s persistent violence, with recent declines showing complexity.
Background
Chicago’s murder rate has fluctuated, rising from 16.0 per 100,000 in 2010 to 29.3 in 2016, then declining to 21.2 in 2024 (573 homicides). Policies like foot pursuits and traffic stops were enacted after lawsuits and protests, aiming to address misconduct amid high violence.
Despite a 24% population decline since 1965, Chicago’s murder rate in 2023 remains high, comparable to the 1970s–1990s peaks, reflecting persistent violence challenges.
The city’s population fell from roughly 3.55 million in 1965 to 2.7 million in 2024, yet the 2024 murder rate of 21.2 per 100,000, with 573 homicides, remains elevated compared to historical peaks like 1974 (30.3) and 1992 (32.7).
The 2010 rate of 16.0 was a low point, but a 2016 spike (29.3) was triggered by reduced policing after the Laquan McDonald case, exacerbated by the Chicago Police Department facing increased scrutiny, and a 2016 ACLU agreement on stop-and-frisk practices further limiting police activity, contributing to a “Ferguson Effect” where officers scaled back engagement in high-crime areas.
The 2019 consent decree and subsequent general orders (e.g., foot pursuits, traffic stops) sustained this de-policing trend, with policies like G03-07 (2022) limiting pursuits and G03-08-02 (2025 draft) curbing minor traffic stops, potentially reducing arrests of armed suspects, though primary violence drivers remain socioeconomic factors (e.g., poverty, segregation) and gun proliferation.
Gang conflicts, COVID-19 disruptions, and 2020 civil unrest further elevated rates, with 2019 (18.2) as a dip before a 2020–2021 surge (28.0–29.8).
Despite an 8% homicide drop from 2023 to 2024, Chicago’s rate remains three times higher than Los Angeles and nearly five times higher than New York City, underscoring persistent inequities in high-violence neighborhoods.
The updated table below includes 2024 and 2019, showing the post-2010 increase from 16.0 to a 2016–2024 range of 18.2–29.3, with policy changes as secondary factors.
For precise annual data, consult Chicago Police Department records or the University of Chicago Crime Lab.
Policy Impact on Violence
CPD’s general orders, such as limiting foot pursuits (effective 2022) and traffic stops (draft 2025), seek to reduce deadly encounters but may hinder apprehending violent offenders. While homicides dropped 8% from 2023 to 2024, the rate remains high, suggesting policies play a secondary role to poverty and gang activity.
Broader Context
These reforms align with the 2019 consent decree, but slow compliance (16% by 2024) and staffing issues limit impact. Community trust and de-escalation are benefits, yet violence persists, requiring broader strategies like social services and gun control.
Table Notes
2019 Data: Homicides (492) from ABC7 Chicago; population (2.71M) interpolated between 2010 (2.695M) and 2020 (2.746M).
2024 Data: Homicides (573) from Chicago Tribune/Wirepoints; rate (21.2) calculated, aligns with reported 21.5.
Estimations: 1980 and 2000 homicide counts estimated due to missing data.
Rate Calculation: Murder rate = (Homicides / Population) × 100,000.
References
2024 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends (December 18, 2024) University of Chicago Crime Lab https://crimelab.uchicago.edu/resources/2024-end-of-year-analysis-chicago-crime-trends/
2024 Homicide Rankings: Chicago, St. Louis Lead Nation Yet Again – A Wirepoints Survey of America’s 75 Largest Cities (March 11, 2025) Wirepoints https://wirepoints.org/2024-homicide-rankings-chicago-st-louis-lead-nation-yet-again-a-wirepoints-survey-of-americas-75-largest-cities/
After 6 Years, CPD Now in Compliance With 16% of Consent Decree: Monitors (April 11, 2025) WTTW News https://news.wttw.com/2025/04/11/after-6-years-cpd-now-compliance-16-consent-decree-monitors
Chicago Homicides Drop to Lowest Level Since 1965 (January 7, 2024) Newsweek https://www.newsweek.com/chicago-homicides-drop-lowest-level-1965-1858737
Chicago Homicides in 2024: 573 People Slain. Here’s How That Compares with Previous Years (January 3, 2025) Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/03/chicago-homicides-2024/
Chicago Police Announce Changes to Department’s Foot Pursuit Policy (May 27, 2021) CBS News Chicago https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chicago-police-foot-chase-policy/
Chicago Police Consent Decree Set to Expand to Include Traffic Stops After Fatal Shooting of Dexter Reed (May 21, 2024) WTTW News https://news.wttw.com/2024/05/21/chicago-police-department-consent-decree-set-expand-include-traffic-stops-after-fatal
Chicago Police Department Consent Decree Set to Expand to Include Traffic Stops After Fatal Shooting of Dexter Reed (May 21, 2024) WTTW News https://news.wttw.com/2024/05/21/chicago-police-department-consent-decree-set-expand-include-traffic-stops-after-fatal
Chicago Police Made Nearly 200,000 Secret Traffic Stops Last Year (August 21, 2024) Injustice Watch https://www.injusticewatch.org/criminal-courts/police/2024/chicago-police-traffic-stops-off-the-books/
Chicago Violence: City Sees Fewer Than 600 Murders in 2024 for 1st Time Since 2019; Shootings, Carjackings Also Down (January 1, 2025) ABC7 Chicago https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-violence-city-sees-fewer-600-murders-2024-1st-time-2019-shootings-carjackings-down/15738569/
City of Chicago Homicide Data Update (January 31, 2024) Chicago Data Portal https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Homicide-Data-Update-YTD-2023-v-2022/3rgu-3y96
Community Reacts to New Police Foot Pursuit Policy (June 25, 2022) WTTW News https://news.wttw.com/2022/06/25/community-reacts-new-police-foot-pursuit-policy
Court Approves Historic Reforms To Chicago Police Department (February 1, 2019) NPR https://www.npr.org/2019/02/01/690591913/court-approves-historic-reforms-to-chicago-police-department
Crime in Chicago (March 15, 2025) Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org
Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2024 Update (January 22, 2025) Council on Criminal Justice https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2024-update/
General Order G02-05 Interactions with Youth and Children EFFECTIVE DATE: 29 December 2023 https://directives.chicagopolice.org/#directive/public/6959
General Order G03-03-01 Emergency Vehicle Operations – Eluding and Pursuing EFFECTIVE DATE: 15 August 2020 http://directives.chicagopolice.org/api/publicDirective/6607
General Order G03-07 FOOT PURSUITS EFFECTIVE DATE: 29 August 2022 https://www.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/G03-07_Foot-Pursuits_I26MAY21_E11JUN21.pdf
General Order G03-07-01 Department Review of Foot Pursuits EFFECTIVE DATE: 01 January 2023 https://directives.chicagopolice.org/#directive/public/6939
General Order Review Traffic Stops G03-08-02 21 April 2025 – DRAFT https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/ccpsa/pdfs/TrafficStopsPage/G03-08-02_CPD_Draft.pdf
Homicides in Chicago: A 60-Year Perspective (October 15, 2023) University of Chicago Crime Lab https://crimelab.uchicago.edu/reports/homicides-chicago-60-year-perspective
Is the Chicago Consent Decree Working? Consent Decrees for Police Reform: The Chicago Experience (July 19, 2023) Manhattan Institute https://manhattan.institute/article/is-the-chicago-consent-decree-working-consent-decrees-for-police-reform-the-chicago-experience
New Policy Would Overhaul Long-Criticized Chicago Police Department Traffic Stop-and-Search Tactic (May 15, 2024) ABC7 Chicago https://abc7chicago.com/post/new-policy-would-overhaul-long-criticized-chicago-police-department-traffic-stop-and-search-tactic/14823410/
Paul Vallas: Chicago’s Federal Consent Decree Will Not Improve Policing (November 20, 2024) Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/11/20/opinion-chicago-police-consent-decree/
Policing the Chicago Consent Decree (February 11, 2025) Impact for Equity https://impactforequity.org/what-we-do/criminal-legal-system/policing-the-chicago-consent-decree/
When Can Chicago Police Officers Use Force? Here’s What to Know (April 10, 2024) WTTW News https://news.wttw.com/2024/04/10/when-can-chicago-police-officers-use-force-here-s-what-know
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